• Bitcoin (BTC) will not reach the six-figure mark prior to the 2024 halving, according to Bitcoin investor and author Jesse Myers.
• Markets will price in the halving post factum over a period of 12-18 months as the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF) is not applicable in this case.
• Recent analysis of past halvings shows that BTC tends to retrace early on in Candle 4 but then typically recovers and rallies significantly.
Bitcoin Price Won’t Reach $100K Before Halving
Bitcoin (BTC) will only hit six figures after its 2024 block subsidy halving, not before, Bitcoin investor and author Jesse Myers believes. In an X (formerly Twitter) post on Aug. 15, Myers said that the market would only “price in” the halving post factum.
Efficient Market Hypothesis Not Applicable
Justification for this comes from criticism of market intuition as the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF), which states that markets always reflect the true state of a given asset, is “wrong” according to Myers. Instead, he believes that the market will price-in the changed reality over a period of 12-18 months post-halving.
Analysis Of Past Halvings
Current analysis shows that each year prior to a halving event has seen similar BTC price performance historically with BTC tending to retrace early on in Candle 4 after which it typically recovers and rallies significantly without looking back.
Recent Forecasts For Bitcoin Price Action
Some believe a breakout is around the corner with October currently being a popular deadline for when they expect a Bitcoin bull market return while pre-halving price predictions include BTC reaching $100,000 or more with one latest call for six-figure Bitcoin coming from Robert Kiyosaki who doubled down on his prediction earlier this week.
In conclusion, Jesse Myers believes that markets will only bear out implications from Bitcoin’s 2024 halving post factum over 12-18 months as opposed to some recent forecasts expecting prices of six figures or more prior to it occurring.